Mike Turnbull's Earthquake Recurrence Period CalculatorMike Turnbull (previously CQSRG 2002 to 2021) has been researching the earthquake seismicity of Eastern Central Queensland since 2002.Mike Turnbull is a self funded, independent, noncommercial researcher. 

Copyright (C) Mike Turnbull 2011 to ; all rights reserved. Last modified 4 June 2024 
This calculator uses formulae developed by Mike Turnbull, derived from the work of Emil Gumbel, and Cinna Lomnitz. The default Alpha and Beta parameters used in this calculator are as calculated by Mike Turnbull for the Bundaberg region of Central Queensland, using historical earthquake event data available in the Geoscience Australia earthquake database from 1878 to 2005. Alpha is the average number of earthquakes in the area being considered per year above magnitude 0.0. Beta is the inverse of the average magnitude of earthquakes in the area being considered. In the case of Central Queensland the area considered was the ±3° geographical square centred on Bundaberg.
To use the calculator just change the design magnitude, the design period, or either of the Gumbel parameters. The program will recalculate the recurrence period and associated probabilities each time the values are changed.
The following important points should be noted.
Fernandez L. & Scherer M. 2018, Emil J. Gumbel’s last course on the "Statistical theory of extreme values": a conversation with Tuncel M. Yegulalp , Extremes (2018) 21:97–113, DOI 10.1007/s106870170299z.
Turnbull M.L. & Weatherley D. 2006, Validation of using Gumbel Probability Plotting to estimate GutenbergRichter seismicity parameters , Proceedings of the AEES 2006 Conference, pp127 to 135, Canberra, A.C.T., November 2006, ISBN 0646469215.
Turnbull M.L. 2006, Estimation of GutenbergRichter seismicity parameters for the Bundaberg region using Piecewise Extended Gumbel Analysis , Proceedings of the AEES 2006 Conference, pp275 to 280, Canberra, A.C.T., November 2006, ISBN 0646469215.